A prolonged pause to shipments would shock the global economy. Last summer, after a brief conflict also involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran threatened to shut the strait down, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies modeled the impact of a potential closure lasting more than a year, finding that 15% of global liquefied natural gas supply would be wiped out, with Europe, China, India, and Japan hit the hardest in terms of lost imports.
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The issue isn’t that independence is impossible. Nor is it that the technology doesn’t exist. It’s that too often, Europe’s political system excels at talking about change and struggles to implement it.
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