Then there’s what you’re saying, which is the value of the markets is the insider information. The insiders will communicate what they know by placing bets or buying contracts against information that’s not yet public. Here’s Vlad just talking about what he thinks the news is. And I’m going to ask you to try to square these ideas between “you shouldn’t have insider trading,” and “here’s what Vlad thinks the news is”:
One of the things that comes up over and over again in the context of these prediction markets is whether or not the people who run them think insider trading is good. And as I hear you talking about pseudo-events and Apple events and Oscar red carpet looks or all the things that fill all of our newspapers, I do feel like I have to start by saying, one, The Verge covers a lot of pseudo-events. I love an Apple event. I’ve been to a lot of them. I highly recommend talking to Liz about celebrity gossip. There’s a lot of entertainment to be had in these pseudo-events.，详情可参考体育直播
Фото: Leon Neal / Getty Images，这一点在PDF资料中也有详细论述
Note that the plot keeps dipping below the 2-good line over and over again. And there are some really nice approximations in there! The first arrow points to 22 / 7 ≈ 3.143 (s ≈ 0.009). The second arrow points to an even better one: 355 / 113 ≈ 3.141593 (s ≈ 0.00003). What’s up with that?，这一点在PDF资料中也有详细论述